Indy 500 Betting Odds

The 95th running of the Indianapolis 500 gets underway this coming Sunday, May 29th. While the race has only been run 95 times, the race is celebrating it’s 100th year since the first Indy 500. The race was not run from 1917-18 or 1942-45 due to World Wars. The 2011 Indy 500 will get underway at 12pm ET, with national coverage beginning at 11am ET on ABC.

The pole position for the 2011 Indy 500 was won by Canadian Alex Tagliani and Sam Schmidt Motorsports. This is Tagliani’s first pole position in his IndyCar Series career. Scott Dixon will be in the middle of the front row, with Oriol Servia in the third spot.

Before we can start looking for a winner, we need to see the running order of the race. Let’s see how the drivers qualified.

2011 Indianapolis 500 Starting Grid

Row 1: Alex Tagliani, Scott Dixon, Oriol Serva
Row 2: Townsend Bell, Will Power, Dan Wheldon
Row 3: Buddy Rice, Ed Carpenter, Dario Franchitti
Row 4: Takuma Sato, Vitor Meira, JR Hildebrand
Row 5: James Hinchcliffe, Bertrand Baguette, Davey Hamilton
Row 6: Helio Castroneves, John Andretti, E.J. Viso
Row 7: Bruno Junquiera, Justin Wilson, Jay Howard
Row 8: Tomas Scheckter, Tony Kanaan, Simona de Silvestro
Row 9: Paul Tracy, Danica Patrick, Ryan Briscoe
Row 10: Marco Andretti, Charlie Kimball, Graham Rahal, Alex Lloyd
Row 11: Alex Lloyd, Pippa Mann, Ana Beatriz

* The odds below come from the Bodog Sportsbook. They accept U.S bettors, and run lines on every major sport in the world, plus novelty betting, financial betting, and entertainment props.

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Indy 500 Betting Picks

For U.S. bettors, I recommend the Bodog Sportsbook. They accept Visa credit & debit cards, and are a huge, secure online sportsbook.

My Picks

Winner: Scott Dixon or Will Power

Best Bet: Will Power at 9/1 at the Bodog Sportsbook

Also Like: Helio Castroneves at 11/1 at the Bodog Sportsbook

Favorite Longshot: Takuma Sato at 100/1 at the Bodog Sportsbook

Comparing the odds to starting position alone is not enough. In Indy car racing, especially at the Indy 500, team and driver experience is very important. A lot can happen in 500 miles, which is why you see past winner Dario Franchitti (2 Indy 500 wins) listed as a favorite. Helio Castroneves (3 Indy 500 wins) is another good example of this.

In 2010, Dario Franchitti won his second Indy 500 race. In 2009, Helio Castroneves won his third. While both of these drivers have a legitimate shot at winning the 2011 Indy 500, I prefer Scott Dixon in this race.

Scott Dixon is starting in the middle of the front row, with Dario Franchitti starting two rows back on the outside. Helio Castroneves sits in the inside of row 6. While a two row advantage doesn’t mean a lot over the course of a race, Dixon is in a better position to stay out of trouble early in the race. If Franchitti can’t move straight to the front he’ll be more vulnerable to being involved in a crash, and that alone gives Dixon an edge as far as I’m concerned. Odds on Dixon started at 4/1, but now they’re at 3/1. While I like Dixon’s chances, 3/1 on any driver doesn’t offer much value.

So, who else can beat Dixon?

Alex Tagliani: Don’t get too impressed with his first-ever pole position. His car is fast, but Indy isn’t just about being fast. Tagliani has never won a race in the series, versus 24 wins and 15 pole’s for Dixon. Tagliani is out.

Will Power: Won two of the first four races of the season, and eight in his career. He finished 2nd in the 2010 IZOD IndyCar Series, and he has the ability to beat anyone on the track. Team Penske is…Team Penske. Starting the race directly behind Dixon and getting 9/1 odds, this is looking like a good bet.

Helio Castroneves: 3-time Indy 500 winner. Starting from the inside of row 6. If nobody (ie Target) gets way out in front, Castroneves always has a shot to win at Indy. At 11/1, this isn’t a bad choice.

Dan Wheldon: Hasn’t won a race or a pole since 2008. Unless something strange happens in front of him, I don’t see him beating Target & Penske.

Buddy Rice: Hasn’t won since 2004. I doubt Panther Racing can compete with the other top teams. Not worth it at 12/1.

Ed Carpenter: Team is too inexperienced. Nope.

Dario Franchitti: Yep, he could win it, but at 4/1 I’m not excited about this bet. I prefer Will Power at 9/1.

Takuma Sato: Inexperienced at Indy, but at 100/1 I like this guy for a long-shot bet on a low wager. He has a good starting position at the inside of row 4, and he’ll get advice from Tony Kanaan. Maybe this years Cinderella story? I’ll be placing a small wager on Sato and praying to the racing gods.

Vito Meira: 118 starts, 0 wins. He has 28 top-5 finishes, but I think he’s outclassed in this race.

JR Hildrebrand: Who? Very little experience in IndyCar. If he’s going to win, he’ll need one of those last second crashes that involves everyone in front of him. Not gonna happen.

James Hinchcliffe: Inexperienced driver, team doesn’t seem ready to win right now. Far-fetched, even at 150/1.

The Rest: As always, there’s a mixed basket in the lower half of the field. Andretti Autosport looks snakebit this year and Danica Patrick is in their best starting position, back in 26th. Marco Andretti is back in 28th. Unless they can find the power they lacked during qualifying, I don’t see them competing with Target or Penske.

Outside of Tony Kanaan, I can’t see anyone else in the lower part of the starting grid that has a chance to win. Kanaan opened at 28/1, and that wasn’t good enough for me. Since then he’s gone in the wrong direction, now listed at 20/1. Too much fan betting going on here…not a good bet at these odds.

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