Nets vs Knicks Betting Line & Prediction
Ok fellow NBA junkies, I think we’ve got a good one here. On Tuesday, November 30th, the New Jersey Nets (6-11) travel to Madison Square Garden to meet their rival New York Knicks (9-9). At Bodog, the point spread is Nets +4 1/2 right now, and I’m liking this bet. Here’s why.
The Knicks suck at home (2-5) so far this year (against bad teams), and while the Nets road record is a terrible 2-7, they’ve had a brutal road schedule so far. Most teams in the league wouldn’t expect to be better than 4-5 or 5-4 against the same teams the Nets have faced.
The Knicks defense is the 3rd worst in the league, giving up 107.17 PPG, and the Nets offense is 2nd worst, averaging a paltry 92.88 PPG. I expect this game to come down to the boards, and whoever wants it more.
The Knicks offense is 4th best in the NBA, averaging a solid 106.78 PPG, while the Nets defense ranks 7th in the league, giving up just 96.24 PPG. While the Knicks can be explosive, an inspired Nets defense could hold them under 100 points, and potentially score around that number as well. This is all about the spread.
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Here are some stats to consider:
New York Knicks (9-9) Home Stats
- Opponents combined record this year (home and road): 121-179 (.403%)
- 2-5 at home this year. 7-4 on the road.
- 5 home losses have come against teams with 36-49 combined records (.424%)
- -7.4 PPG average home losses
- 2 home wins were +21 against Wash (5-11) and +3 against Cha (6-11)
- Have only played two .500 or better teams at home this year. Lost to Portland (8-8) by 5 pts, and Hawks (11-7) by 9 pts.
- 9 wins come against teams with combined record of 53-96.
* Moral to the story: The Knicks are not as good as their 9-9 record shows. Bad at home, against bad teams. They rely too heavily on their starters which can cause problems late in the game, especially if they get into foul trouble.
New Jersey Nets (6-11) Road Stats
- Opponents combined record this year (home and road): 140-144 (.492%)
- 2-7 on the road this year. 4-4 at home.
- 7 road losses come from teams with combined record of 66-51. 5 of those 7 teams have a combined record of 58-27.
- Road losses include Orlando by 15, Miami by 12, Utah by 10, Sacramento by 5, Denver by 4, Boston by 6, Philadelphia by 16.
- 2 road wins against Cleveland by 8, and LAC by 14
* Moral to the story: Have faced a much tougher schedule than the Knicks so far in 2010. Road opponents have been very tough. Hung in there with Denver on 11/20, and Boston on 11/24. The New Jersey Nets are not as bad as their record indicates.
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The Nets broke a 5 game losing streak against the Trailblazers, beating Portland 98-96 on Sunday, Nov. 28th. The bench came up with 27 points.
The New York Knicks won their 4th road game in a row, beating the Detroit Pistons in overtime on Sunday. All five starters scored between 16-37 points, with Chandler (39:16 min’s) being the only starter with less than 51 minutes. Their bench came up with a paltry 9 points with typical, limited time on the court.
The Knicks rely heavily on their starting 5, especially Amar’e Stoudemire. If the Nets defense can keep Stoudemire from driving to the basket all night, forcing him to take jumpers or pass the ball, the Nets have a good shot at winning this game outright. A few good defensive plays could be the difference in this close matchup.
The Nets will likely need to get Kris Humphries more minutes as well. Humphries has been averaging 8.4 RPG this season, with just 23.9 min’s per game. If he can grab 3-4 rebounds that Stoudemire might’ve otherwise gotten, that could be the difference right there.
Betting Line & Free Prediction
I’m taking the New Jersey Nets +4 1/2. I expect the game to be close, and it could go either way, but I expect the Nets to at least cover the point spread. The Nets have to be looking at this as an opportunity to win a game on the road, and you know they’d love to win at Madison Square Garden. With a good effort, the Nets have the ability to win this game outright, so I like the value here at +4 1/2.
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