Ravens vs. Patriots Over Under

Home: New England Patriots (13-3 overall, 7-1 at home)
Away: Baltimore Ravens (12-4 overall, 4-4 on the road)
Game: AFC Championship. Sunday, Jan. 22, 2012. 3:00pm ET.
Opening Over/Under: 50

The Ravens vs. Patriots over/under (total) opened at 50 (-110) at Sports Interaction. The odds chart below will continue to be updated.

Latest Ravens vs. Patriots Over/Under

My prediction for the Ravens vs. Patriots over-under is that the Patriots will put up 30-33 points, while the Ravens put up 20-23. This gives us more potential winning over totals than under, so I’m taking the over of 50 (-110) at Sports Interaction. For my complete analysis on the Patriots Ravens over/under, please read below.

Patriots vs. Ravens Over/Under Analysis

The Patriots – Ravens over/under was one of the more interesting playoff bets to analyze so far this year. On one side we have arguably the best defense in the NFL, and the other side has an equally potent offense. Although ESPN and all of the sports talk radio shows continually harp on the Patriots passing defense, they give up a lot more yards than they do points.

On the road during the regular season this year, the Baltimore Ravens over record was 6-2. For the New England Patriots, they were 5-3 on the over at home. Obviously both of these stats point towards the over.

While the New England Patriots defense ranks #31 in the NFL in total yards, they rank 15th in points allowed (21.4 ppg). At home during the regular season, they only gave up 19.3 ppg, which is much better than most people realize.

On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens had a tough time scoring on the road this year. Although they averaged 23.6 ppg overall, they only put up 19.9 on the road. Baltimore’s offense was slightly better than average during the regular season, and they’re going against a defense that is better than people give them credit for. I don’t care if you give up 1000 yards per game if you keep opponents out of the end zone.

The New England Patriots offense has so many weapons to cover that they get someone open almost every down. I suspect the Ravens defense will focus heavily on the Patriots TE duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, along with Wes Welker in the middle. There’s no doubt the Ravens have watched the film and seen how often Brady goes to his tight ends, and how rarely he goes to his WR’s (aside from Welker). I think they’d rather get beat by the Patriots WR’s than the TE’s, especially Gronk. Gronkowski is a tough bull to tackle, and I think they prefer their chances against the Patriots WR’s. This should give Deion Branch and other Patriots WR’s more opportunities to get open and do their own damage. Don’t be surprised if we see a couple of big plays designed for Ochocinco as well. Chad finished the season with just 15 receptions, and head coach Bill Belichick knows the Ravens defense will be sleeping on him.

One of the problems the Ravens defense faces this week is Tom Brady reads defenses so well and has the ability to make quick adjustments. If the Ravens double Gronkowski, Brady will find open WR’s or go to Hernandez. Gronkowski is the guy who creates all the matchup problems, and he leaves most teams 1 man short. I don’t care how good your defense is against everyone else, when there’s a man open every down and Tom Brady passing the ball, you’re gonna get hurt. The Patriots will get their points, and I’m picking them for 30-33 total.

For the Ravens offense, Joe Flacco has made it clear that he feels disrespected by the media. A QB who feels he has something to prove is a good sign for the over. If the Patriots finish in the 30-33 range, the Ravens will need to put up 18-21 points. They averaged 19.9 points on the road this year, and I think one of two things could happen. Either the Ravens will put up 20-23 points, or they’ll lose a turnover or two to the Patriots and put up 17-20. If that happens, the Patriots offense is likely to score off of those turnovers, making up for the loss in points by the Ravens. The Patriots were #1 in the AFC in turnover ratios (+17), mainly due to their 23 picks this year, with just 5 fumbles.

Of course there’s also a real possibility that the Patriots could put up more than 33 points. This will be tough against the Ravens defense, but nothing the Patriots offense does surprises me anymore. Below is my official Ravens vs. Patriots over/under prediction.

Ravens – Patriots Over Under Prediction

After looking over all the stats & Patriots vs. Ravens player matchups, I like the over. There are enough things that might happen which could result in points on the board that I think we have an edge here. With the Ravens – Patriots over/under at 50 (-110) right now, I think we’ll see it move up a point before the game begins on Sunday.

Patriots-Ravens Over/Under Prediction: Over 50 (-110) at BetOnline.com.

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