Ravens vs. Patriots Point Spread
Home: New England Patriots (13-3 overall, 7-1 at home)
Away: Baltimore Ravens (12-4 overall, 4-4 on the road)
What: AFC Conference Championship
When: Sunday January 22, 2012 at 3:00pm ET
TV: CBS
Although the New England Patriots defense was awful during the regular season, they stepped it up last week against the Broncos. To cover the spread as home favorites, the Patriots defense will need another good week to contain the Baltimore Ravens offense.
The point spread, ML and O/U in the chart below will be kept current, but the written content on this page is based on the early point spread for the Ravens vs. Patriots. For the latest spread, money line, and over/under odds on both of the 2011 – 2012 Conference Championship games, please visit our NFL Playoff Odds page.
Ravens & Patriots Against the Spread
Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot to take from the ATS (against the spread) records of the Ravens or Patriots during the regular season.
Baltimore Ravens Against the Spread: 2011 – 2012 Regular Season
Overall ATS: 8-7-1
ATS on the Road: 4-4
ATS as Road Underdogs: 1-0
New England Patriots Against the Spread: 2011 – 2012 Regular Season
Overall ATS: 9-6-1
ATS at Home: 4-4
ATS as Home Favorites: 4-4
For the season, both teams are overall winners against the spread. However, the Ravens are 4-4 ATS on the road, and the Patriots are 4-4 ATS at home. The Ravens were underdogs on the road just once this year, and they won that game against the Steelers outright 23-20.
What is more important in this game is the overall home & away records for these teams. The New England Patriots are very tough at home, going 7-1 during the regular season. For the Baltimore Ravens, all four of their losses this year cam eon the road. Those losses were to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Chargers. Those teams finished the 2011 – 2012 season with a combined record of 29-35. With that said, this is more important for money line bets than bets on the point spread.
Ravens & Patriots Points For & Points Against
During the regular season, the New England Patriots scored an average of 8.5 more points per game than the Baltimore Ravens. However, the Ravens are a much better than average defense. They rank #3 in the NFL in points allowed, 2nd in rushing yards/game, and 4th in passing yards/game.
Something worth noting is that although the Patriots defense gives up a ton of yards (31st in the NFL), they rank 15th in the NFL in points allowed. Yards don’t matter, points do.
Baltimore Ravens Points For/Against: 2011 – 2012 Regular Season
Overall:
Points For: 378 total (23.6/game)
Points Against: 266 total (16.6/game)
Difference: +7 points per game
On the Road:
Points For: 159 total (19.9/game)
Points Against: 147 total (18.4/game)
Difference: +1.5 points per game
New England Patriots Points For/Against: 2011 – 2012 Regular Season
Points For: 513 total (32.1/game)
Points Against: 342 total (21.4/game)
Difference: +10.7 points per game
At Home:
Points For: 246 total (30.8/game)
Points Against: 154 total (19.3/game)
Difference: +11.5 points per game
Based on these numbers, we can see that the Ravens are clearly at a disadvantage on the road, while the Patriots numbers don’t change much whether they’re at home or on the road. Keep in mind that the Ravens weaker road numbers drag down their overall numbers. Their home numbers are better than the overall. Although the road numbers are what matter, the difference between how they perform at home versus on the road is larger than the difference between the road and overall numbers above.
New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Point Spread Prediction
To make our prediction on the Ravens – Patriots spread, lets looks a bit deeper.
On the surface, this looks like a Patriots offense vs. Ravens defensive matchup, but obviously there’s more to it than that. The New England Patriots defense performed better in the divisional round against the Broncos, and I expect them to be highly motivated again for the Conference Championship. For predicting the Ravens – Patriots point spread, this is a critical element of the game that casual bettors may not give them credit for. Also, while all of the sports talk shows harp on the terrible Patriots defense, they actually give up fewer points than many people realize. They often force their opponents to kick field goals, rather than giving up TD’s.
The Baltimore Ravens have struggled on the road this year, and they’re playing one of the best home teams in recent history. The Patriots have an unbelievable home record of 23-1 since the beginning of the 2009-2010 season, all under the helm of QB Tom Brady.
Another key element of this Patriots vs. Ravens matchup is the turnover ratios of these teams. The Patriots led the AFC by a wide margin, at +17 on the year. They picked off 23 passes and caused 11 fumbles during the regular season, while giving up 12/5 respectively.
The Ravens were +2 in the turnover department, largely the result of 12 fumbles. Both teams were picked off just 12 times this year, but the Patriots only coughed it up 5 times. The Ravens cannot afford to lose the turnover battle and give Tom Brady more time on the field. If the Patriots go +1 in this game, that could easily be the difference they need to cover the point spread.
I see the Baltimore Ravens defense putting up a fight, but in the end, the New England Patriots will come out on top, covering the -7.5 point spread.
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