Steelers vs. 49ers Betting Line

Home: San Francisco 49ers (10-3 overall, 6-1 at home)
Away: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3 overall, 4-2 on the road)
When: Monday Night Football, Week 15. 4:15 pm ET. Monday, December 19, 2011.
TV: ESPN

For week 15 Monday Night Football we’ve got a huge matchup between two teams fighting to improve their playoff seeds. The Steelers and 49ers still have a shot at top-2 seeds in their respective conferences, and a first round bye in the playoffs. For both teams, this game is almost certain to affect playoff positions.

Both teams are 10-3 heading into this game, and the Steelers have won their last four games. The 49ers have lost two of their last three games, including a 16-6 loss against the Ravens in week 12, and 21-19 to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers have already locked up the NFC West, but they won’t want to head into the playoffs on a bad run. A win over the Steelers on the national stage of Monday Night Football would give them a much needed boost in confidence.

To place a bet on this game, click on any of the odds links or sportsbook logos below. BetOnline.com and JustBet.cx accept US bettors and credit cards for funding accounts.

Latest Steelers at 49ers Betting Lines: Monday Night Football, Week 15

This Monday Night Football game with the Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers is likely to have the largest handle so far in the 2011 – 2012 NFL season. From a handicappers perspective, timing is everything. Most online sportsbooks got their Steelers vs. 49ers betting lines posted late this week – most of them posting on Friday or even as late as Saturday. At the time of this writing (Sunday at 8pm ET), the lines still haven’t moved much. Now that the only game running is the Sunday night game, public action should start coming in.

Both of these teams are very popular, and both will get a lot of betting action. I don’t suspect we’ll see a lot of movement on the point spread from where we’re at, maybe within 1 point back & forth. We’ll have to keep a close eye on this one between now & game time.

Steelers Versus 49ers MNF Analysis & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a very well-rounded offense, but are only scoring 21.7 points per game. The San Francisco 49ers have a very weak passing game, but a strong running game. They’re scoring 23.6 points per game this year.

Here’s where it gets fun. The Steelers defense has been great all season, and they continue to improve. In the last three weeks, the Steelers have given up a total of just 19 points. On the season, they’re only giving up 15.2 points per game.

As good as Steelers defense has been, the 49ers D has been even better. The 49ers defense ranks #1 in the NFL allowing just 14 ppg. A big reason for this is because they also lead the NFL in takeaways/giveaways, at +21 on the year. Not only does the defense do a great job creating turnovers, but the 49ers offense does an equally great job in holding onto the ball. They’ve only thrown 5 INT’s and coughed up 5 fumbles all season long. As mentioned above, they also have an excellent running game, eating up a lot of clock time. They rank fifth in the NFL in time of possession, at 31:57 per game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are -7 in takeaways/giveaways, primarily a result of the 10 fumbles they’ve committed this year (6 by Ben Roethlisberger).

If this game were a computer simulation based on seasonal stats, the 49ers would probably win 70-75% of the games with turnovers being the key reason. However, this isn’t a computer simulation, and intangibles could play a big part in this game. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have been there, done that for several years now, and their experience in big games has to be worth a couple of extra points.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread

At the time of this writing, the San Francisco 49ers point spread is -3 (-110) at BetOnline.com and JustBet.cx. Of course the Steelers point spread is +3 (-110) at both books as well.

San Francisco’s rushing defense is incredibly good, giving up just 70.5 rushing yards/game. The Steelers rushing defense is very good as well, ranked 6th in the NFL giving up 97 yards per game.

The 49ers passing offense ranks 26th in the league in total yards and yards per game, going against the #2 ranked passing defense. The well-rounded Steelers offense gives them more ability to make plays than the one-dimensional rushing offense of the 49ers.

I give the 49ers 4 extra points for turnovers and home-field advantage, and the Steelers 2 points for experience. I give the Steelers 3 more points for an offense that should be more effective than the Niners offense.

With this and everything else considered, I actually have the Steelers winning this outright by one point. So, I’m taking the Steelers and the points, at +3 (-110) at BetOnline. Unless the 49ers cause 2-3 more turnovers than the Steelers, I think a push is the worst case scenario.

49ers vs. Steelers Money Line

As mentioned above, I’m picking the Steelers to win this outright by one point. At the time of this writing, the Steelers money line is +135 at BetOnline, and JustBet hasn’t posted their money lines yet. I’d like to see +145 or +150, so I’m going to wait until closer to game time to see if I can get that. Hopefully the public will be betting the home team.

The 49ers money line is -155 at BetOnline. Since I think they’re going to lose a close game, I don’t see value in this bet.

Steelers at 49ers Over/Under Betting Odds

The latest Steelers vs. 49ers over/under is 38 (-110) on either side at BetOnline and 37.5 (-110) on either side at JustBet.

I’m expecting a low scoring game in the range of 17-13 to 21-17. Based on this scoring range, we have a huge edge on the under. So, I’m betting the under of 38 (-110) at BetOnline. If you prefer the over, get it at 37.5 (-110) at JustBet.cx and gain the 1/2 point.

Steelers @ 49ers Prop Bets and Live Betting at Online Sportsbooks

Generally, the best sports betting sites for NFL prop bets are Bovada (the new US friendly version of Bodog), and BetOnline. At the time of this writing, no prop bets are available yet, but they should start to pop up later tonight (Sunday) or early tomorrow.

The Bovada Sportsbook will also be offering live betting for this Steelers @ 49ers Monday Night Football matchup, with hundreds of props available during the game. Live bets start for as little as $1 each, and bettors can wager on every possession of a game. In the live betting interface at Bovada, there will be player, team, and game props available.